12th Applied Statistics 2015
International Conference
September 20 - 23, 2015
Ribno (Bled), Slovenia

Past conferences:

2013 2012 2011 2010  2009
2008 2007 2006 2005  2004
 before 2004


  Important dates

  Acceptance note
     July 1
  Reduced early
  payment fee
     July 15



Dynamic treatment regimes as a prediction problem

Elja Arjas
University of Helsinki and University of Oslo

Adequate medical treatment of many diseases, including different types of cancer, involves a sequence of treatment assignments over time.

For an optimal allocation, each assignment of a new treatment should be allowed to depend adaptively on how the patient responded to the ones that were administered previously. The task of establishing a close-to-optimal dynamic treatment regime of this type for patients with different individual characteristics, based on the accrued follow-up information, offers several challenges which are both conceptual and technical. The purpose of this talk is to consider their solution from a Bayesian perspective, by combining tools from constrained nonparametric modeling of stochastic processes and their inference, and the consequent predictive distributions, with dynamic programming for establishing the optimum. While the ideas underlying this approach are general, practical considerations will often restrict their direct applicability, and require that certain simplifying assumptions in the modeling are employed. An example based on HIV data is considered as an illustration.
 Applied Statistics 2015      http://conferences.nib.si/AS2015                                e-mail: info.AS@nib.si