Applied Statistics 2010
International Conference

September 19 - 22, 2010
Ribno (Bled), Slovenia

Next conference:
Applied Statistics 2011
September 25 - 28, 2011

Past conferences:
Applied Statistics 2009
Applied Statistics 2008
Applied Statistics 2007

Applied Statistics 2006
Applied Statistics 2005
Applied Statistics 2004
Conferences before 2004



  Important dates

  Acceptance note
     June 15
  Registration and
  hotel reservation
      July 1
  Reduced early
  payment fee
      July 15


Slovenian Research Agency (ARRS)



Models, assumptions and confidence limits

John Copas
University of Warwick, UK

Confidence intervals reflect our uncertainty about a parameter of interest, and models reflect our assumptions about the context of the data. Some of these assumptions may be justified by background knowledge, but others will be rather arbitrary. Statistics text books advise that before assuming a model we should check that it gives a good fit to the data (by using goodness-of-fit tests or graphical diagnostics). But does a well-fitting model necessarily mean a good confidence interval? Looking at the robustness of confidence limits to model choice suggests some rather basic questions about our use of models and assumptions in statistics.

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